Microsoft Consoles and Updates

[HandsomeDead]

49 minutes ago, mfnick said:

Not quite. The PS3 ended up at 87.4mill and Xbox at 84mill. Got to imagine a lot of those 360’s were repeat purchases too thanks to RROD. & if the PS3 didn’t have such a strong library of exclusives there’s no way it would have overtaken like it did.

 

The Wii U can’t really be counted in the same argument IMO. Nintendo alienated a lot of customers with the casual approach of the Wii plus they’re more gimmicky. I think if Nintendo were more “traditional” the exclusives would have mattered more and without them that console wouldn’t have even sold what it did. 
 

Of course exclusives matter, if Xbox had a steady stream of them at high quality, all on GP day 1 it absolutely would be doing better. The whole narrative changes. 

 

The PS3 just about passing the 360 by the end is the exception still.  The trend is that the position doesn't move from the period of time they're released or around the first year of availability.

 

Good exclusives matter but the point being made is will it shift MS's position in its market share, and history dictates that its unlikely.

[mfnick]

It’s not going to make it be the number 1 console, but they need them to stop dropping into obscurity. Plus it puts them in a stronger position to eventually get a bigger market share and if they want GP to take off, they need those killer apps for it. 

[Nag]

40 minutes ago, mfnick said:

Sony were being very arrogant and stupid at that time

 

Which is pretty much my entire reason why I'm in the Xbox garden now... the six month UK release delay and piss take pricing of the PS3 is why I jumped ship from Sony and it's still the only PlayStation home console I've never owned.

[DANGERMAN]

it is possible to get people to move over their digital libraries, and it's possible to make money without being number 1. It's not a 1:1 comparison, but if you look at Apple and Google in the phone OS space. Apple had a huge lead, Google made Android open, free to use, which meant cheap phones, bringing in new people. Consoles aren't upgraded and replaced as often as phones obviously, but with the Series S and Game Pass, Microsoft have the cheaper option. Maybe they just need that streaming box to become a thing?

[HandsomeDead]

 

11 minutes ago, mfnick said:

It’s not going to make it be the number 1 console, but they need them to stop dropping into obscurity. Plus it puts them in a stronger position to eventually get a bigger market share and if they want GP to take off, they need those killer apps for it. 

 

I agree with that.  That's why I'm trying to get at how this 1st, 2nd, 3rd isn't a very useful measure for success but it gets talked about like it is and it has these simple solutions like "more games".  I want more good games but it's not gonna change much.  Of course it's gonna stop them from dropping off a cliff, I said as much in the OP.

 

The thing that would change the positioning is if the competition just stopped doing anything (like you pointed out late era 360).  If they're all doing their thing with their exclusives well enough then the positions are unlikely to change.

[shinymcshine]

Personally I find it odd that people don't flip flop between PS & MS on alternative generations (which is sort of what I do) - then you pick up the previous generation's exclusives when they are inevitably 'remastered' so you don't miss out.

[mfnick]

No need to swap anymore, there’s no Xbox exclusives to catch up on.

 

I kid. 
 

Kind of. 

[DANGERMAN]

this is going to sound like trolling, but I don't think Xbox has had any exclusives I've been desperate to play since the 360. That might change with id's games, and maybe the next Fallout (4 and 76 weren't particularly good), although I wouldn't play those on a console regardless. 

 

I don't like the Switch as a machine, but I have it for what it offers. While I would never have bought an Xbox One in its first years, if there was enough reason to I'd buy an Xbox console

[one-armed dwarf]

Yeah I can't think of any, even being generous and including games which release on PC (which tbf nowadays is every single Xbox exclusive).

 

Rise of the Tomb Raider as sort of alright, but that was a 1 year exclusive. 

 

Their IPs are just boring to me. The teams they have under them are cool, but they aren't doing interesting things. I know that it takes more than one big game to make an impact, but Elder Scrolls VI would be that game I think. If there was ever one to challenge GoW and BOTW2

[HandsomeDead]

I agree, I thought it would be cool to go back to the XB1 games I missed but I've not found anything I like yet.  I've not played that era's Halo and Gears.  I keep thinking I may do a full run of the Gears games some day but I've not done it yet.  I like the 360 ones, especially Gears 2.  I didn't vibe with State of Decay 2 as much as I thought I would.  I'm not really a Forza Horizon type but I'm looking forward a bit to the next main entry.

 

I guess it's future stuff by Obsidian, Double Fine and Ninja Theory that I'm mostly here for.

[mfnick]

I agree as well. They’ve not had any excellent exclusives since 360. I was counting the One in my comment about not needing to bother anymore. 

 

I had to have them for Forza, but I’m an outlier in that area. Plus 4 is still the best one. 5, 6 & 7 were all disappointing in their own ways. Luckily Horizon has stayed mostly excellent even if it’s not my preferred type of racer. 

[shinymcshine]

I guess it depends what you want from 'exclusives' but I've played things like Tainted Grail Conquest, Immortality and Benedict Fox on the Xbox Series S - which are all not currently available on PS.

 

So they might not be AAA titles, but it's the only console I can play these games on - and they are things that peaked my interest on Gamepass.

[DisturbedSwan]

Folks here will probably know I'm no fan of Phil and I always think with these kind of interviews there's ulterior motives involved but those interviews yesterday were much needed, and kudos for owning up to a shitshow so frankly and honestly. 

 

I few of his answers were odd though. Saying that exclusives don't sell consoles is a load of bollocks, likewise with saying they won't out console Sony & Nintendo, it's true, yes, but what's the point in being in the market then? I get there are other revenue streams but selling consoles will be the number growth metric for Game Pass.

 

I used to love everything Xbox, the OG and 360, so many fantastic exclusives, new IP and it was the place to play MP games, but what have they got now? Game Pass is great, yes, but what else? They desperately need new AAA exclusives, preferably new IP, and they need to sort their management out so that these games come out in a decent time frame, there's games from E3/Summer Games Fest 3 years ago that still haven't shipped, it's pretty crazy. 

 

I will say as well that whilst Brand loyality is a factor in people choosing PS over Xbox, a lot of it comes down to Xbox just not doing a good enough job in localising stuff, marketing the consoles and all that stuff in countries that aren't the US and UK. I remember when the XB1 came out and they only had a small selection of languages at launch, likewise when Kinect came out initially, it's just an immediate turn off for people if they can't play a console in their own language. Scandinavian countries, places like Holland etc. where English is commonplace will be fine, but there are many others not just in Europe, but around the world where it is still a real issue Xbox have, regardless of games and exclusives.

[HandsomeDead]

14 minutes ago, DisturbedSwan said:

I few of his answers were odd though. Saying that exclusives don't sell consoles is a load of bollocks, likewise with saying they won't out console Sony & Nintendo, it's true, yes, but what's the point in being in the market then? I get there are other revenue streams but selling consoles will be the number growth metric for Game Pass.

 

You're inferring onto what he didn't say.  He didn't say exclusives don't sell consoles, he said it won't change their standing.  And the goal isn't to win the console war, the goal is to make money and they absolutely can from their position.  It's not a zero sum game.

 

I don't think any of the console manufacturers are doing well at the moment, it's weird to single out MS for that.

[DisturbedSwan]

Just now, HandsomeDead said:

You're inferring onto what he didn't say.  He didn't say exclusives don't sell consoles, he said it won't change their standing.  And the goal isn't to win the console war, the goal is to make money and they absolutely can from their position.  It's not a zero sum game.

 

I don't think any of the console manufacturers are doing well at the moment, it's weird to single out MS for that.

 

Well I disagree, exclusives would change their standing if they had a string of them over the course of a generation, it would make the Series S/X sell far more, and could change their standing from third to second in the pecking order, which would be worthwhile. But yeah, they can absolutely make money regardless, but the whole Xbox sector of Microsoft would be a lot more profitable overall if their boxes sold more as that would mean more Game Pass subs, more digital sales, more MTX money from stuff like Fortnite etc.

 

The second part I don't understand at all. The Switch and PS5 are selling absolute gangbusters, they're both doing very well, the latter more than the former but Switch is still selling very well for a 6 year old console. Xbox has seen declining sales since the start of this year. 

[one-armed dwarf]

Well based off what was in that other thread Sony seem to be struggling on the software sales side of the business. I don't know how it's going with Nintendo but the switch has been out a long time and people are probably just waiting for the next gen system from them.

 

I think a couple things really didn't work out for MS, obviously the reasons are completely understandable but STALKER 2 would have been a massive release for them and a really appealing IP. Them putting so many eggs in the ABK basket seems like it was a mistake.

 

Like exclusives aren't the only thing that matter but they definitely increase the cachet of these systems imo. Immortality can be played on a laptop, and even Netflix. It's not a strong reason to get one.

[HandsomeDead]

Well I'd just be rehashing a point I made earlier but historically exclusives don't have a dramatic effect on the market share because everyone is doing it. There's lots of reasons to invest in exclusives but to say they will shift the standing alone is ahistorical and a fantasy.  So many 2nd and 3rd placers pumped out quality games.

17 minutes ago, DisturbedSwan said:

The second part I don't understand at all. The Switch and PS5 are selling absolute gangbusters, they're both doing very well, the latter more than the former but Switch is still selling very well for a 6 year old console. Xbox has seen declining sales since the start of this year. 

 

Sony and Nintendo are coasting at the moment, they're not doing anything remarkable.  Nintendo have Zelda coming but that's the only big thing, and the only big thing for a good while.

And like Dwarf said, we have data saying software on PlayStation are down.

[DisturbedSwan]

7 minutes ago, HandsomeDead said:

Well I'd just be rehashing a point I made earlier but historically exclusives don't have a dramatic effect on the market share because everyone is doing it. There's lots of reasons to invest in exclusives but to say they will shift the standing alone is ahistorical and a fantasy.  So many 2nd and 3rd placers pumped out quality games.

 

Sony and Nintendo are coasting at the moment, they're not doing anything remarkable.  Nintendo have Zelda coming but that's the only big thing, and the only big thing for a good while.

And like Dwarf said, we have data saying software on PlayStation are down.

 

If they don't have a dramatic effect on the market then why have Sony been doing so well since 2011 and Nintendo since 2017? Yes there are other factors and that's an oversimplification but would the Switch of sold as well without as many fantastic exclusives as it has, no. Would the tail end of PS3, running into PS4 and now PS5 of sold so well if it wasn't for all the fantastic exclusives over the last 12 years, no. 

 

Nintendo are coasting?! At 114 million units sold Nintendo are coasting?! The Switch is at the end of it's lifecycle now and Zelda is the biggest light on that horizon, I agree that much but then they haven't really announced anything beyond July with Pikman 4, but I'm sure there will be some other cool exclusives to come to finish off the consoles lifespan successfully.

 

That article ignores Sony's own projections - which have been spot on so far this generation - and signals a very small drop in software sales anyway, mainly due to not as many big games coming out this FY as there were last FY, that's pretty much it. The small drop is insignificant anyway when you factor in that revenue went up. Regardless of that article anyway, PlayStation is doing incredibly well so far by every other metric, consoles sold etc. it just sold the most consoles for a Q1 in history, that's a cause of concern? 

 

I single out MS because they're the only major console manufacturer with a new console out that is seeing declines in console sales so early into the consoles lifecycle. Switch is seeing declines too but it's 6 years old and that tracks with forecasts and projections for how old the console now is. 

[HandsomeDead]

Make sure not to pull anything moving those goal posts.  I'm talking about in the current moment.  Of course Nintendo have overall smashed it with the Switch but the last year, maybe two they've absolutely been coasting just relying on the strength of the platform.  That strength came from a good launch (where exclusives are more meaningful) and exclusives later in the lifespan at best maintain it.

I don't know how anyone can argue against that the table is set around a year after a consoles launch and the vast, vast majority of times no amazing set of exclusives will change that.  I don't think it even matters that it doesn't.  I just want good games for the sake of having good games, but they're not gonna change the market share dramatically and setting the standard that they will is so silly because it has never worked out that way (except the PS3 which we talked about, but even then it was slim and at the very end of the generation (and more because of a failure of MS than an achievement of Sony), but it certainly doesn't happen at the stage we're at now).

 

Overall I just see "just make more exclusives and you'll be the market leader" is such unreasonable rhetoric.  It's pull yourself up by you bootstraps arguement and I'm going a little insane having to take it seriously.

 

 

Actually, why are forecasts taken at face value so uncritically.  Just because they foresaw a dip it means things are all good?  I... I dunno this is going way out of the scope of discussion the Phil clip was pointing at.

 

Okay, Sony and Nintendo are killing it by their own criteria, so are MS I guess.  So am I even.  I've met all my projections.

[one-armed dwarf]

Increase in revenue would be offset by rising inflation, I'd have thought. I still also just don't think that it's a small drop (303.2 million units to 264.2 million) with the fact that is a huge increase in hardware sold in the same interim.

 

But it's hard to talk much about this one way or the other cause the covid tech bubble has kind of muddled the appearance of what is a healthy market and what sustainable growth looks like. The attach rate post-covid of software can't easily be compared. Supply and demand now compared with the past couple years is completely different, it's like an elastic band snapping back. These companies want growth forever but of course that is not going to happen.

 

There's no reason why Sony, MS or Nintendo would be immune to the tech rout currently going on, it's going to be a difficult time for all of them, no matter what happy spin is put on it. Though by the looks of things it's going worse for MS. But at the same time they've a lot of things in the pipeline